Trumpanomics Part IV: The Impossible Path To 25 MM Jobs
One of the main goal of Trumpanomics is to create 25 million new jobs over the next ten years. Seemed like a big number too me at first, then I took look at demographics of the US population and found that not only is 25 mm a big number, it is an impossible number to accomplish—unless of course, that you allow more immigration not less. Trump employment policies will run into the wall of slowing population growth and an aging of the baby boomer generations. Below I will show that for Trumpanomics to grow jobs by 25 mm he needs the following to happen over the next ten years:
the US population needs to accelerate from recent levels and grow roughly 40 to 80% faster than any other non-baby boomer ten year period, and 50 to 100 % faster than current BLS/CBO projections for 2016.
The US labor force participation rate needs to ramp back up to historical peaks even though the baby boomers are aging into low participation (think retirement) away from high participation rate cohorts